***Gonzalo Now A Strong Category 3 System Taking Dead Aim At Bermuda****
There have been some changes overnight in the overall structure of the cyclone. It appears that Gonzalo is slowly weakening as it aims at Bermuda. It will arrive sometime later today. Regardless, it will still be a major, dangerous hurricane.
Good morning all. Tropical Storm Gonzalo continues to intensify and a Hurricane Warning has been posted for the British Virgin Islands.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Gonzalo
this morning found 850 mb maximum flight-level winds of 64 kt along
with reliable SFMR surface winds near 55 kt in the northeastern
quadrant, plus a central pressure of 992 mb. In addition, the
Antigua-Barbuda Meteorological Service recently reported a sustained
wind of 58 kt and a gust to 76 kt. Based on these data, the
intensity has been increased to 55 kt. Reports from the aircraft
radar and Antigua-Barbuda also indicate the center of Gonzalo passed
over Antigua between 1300-1400 UTC.
***Tropical Outlook***
Good evening all. The tropics are beginning to heat up on this mid October evening. We are now tracking Fay, Invest 90 and Invest 91. None of these storms pose a direct threat to the US. Invest 90 will be watched just in case it brushes close enough to create some rough surf along the beaches.
***Tropical Outlook****
On this September 11, the low in the Bahamas remains disorganized and the Recon mission has been cancelled. Wind shear is expected to keep the tropical low in check and development is not likely.
The low will move to the west or west-southwest towards South Florida. Regardless of development, the system will bring heavy rain to areas that in the path of the low. you can view the model tracks of the low directly on our Doppler Radar images and loops.
** Tropical Outlook****
Good afternoon everybody! We are now tracking Invest 92 in the Atlantic. Thais is the area that is just offshore Florida in the Bahamas. Although the chances are low at this hour, those chances could increase some tomorrow. A look at the satellite shows some low level swirls starting to develop. The pressures in the area are currently quite high. A few of the models are showing a potential weak tropical storm hitting near Jupiter or south of there. Please remember this is not a forecast but information from a model run. There is some wind shear in the area that could hinder the development of this system.
***Atlantic Tropical Outlook****
On this Wednesday afternoon, Dolly has dissipated over Mexico and the lats advisory for her has been written. There are no other areas of the Atlantic that are being watched for tropical cyclone activity at this time. Around the weekend, a tropical wave will emerge from the African Coast and conditions appear to be favorable for some development. Right now, that is the only game in town.
Air Force recon has found near tropical storm force winds near Puerto Rico this evening. The new information has been input into the models and as you can see the trends have shifted way to the west.
The South eastern and Central Bahamas could start receiving heavy rains tonight and Saturday. It is important to note that if the system develops, there will not be much warning for them.
Good evening everybody! Tonight we are still doing the model cha cha cha. The GFS has moved again to the west along with the Euro. There are still a couple of models making landfall in southe Florida but it now appears the odds are in an out to sea track. Since we still do not have a defined system it is going to be hard for the models to be accurate. If a system does develop, I do not see it being anything but a weak system at this time.
Ten years ago today, Hurricane Charley hit the West Coast of Florida and began one of the worst hurricane seasons Florida has ever experienced. It was one of the most destructive years for the state because almost every square inch of Florida received hurricane force winds that year. When Charley struck, it was a Friday the 13th.
Today marks the beginning of the peak 2014 hurricane season. We have not seen a direct hit in our region since 2005 when Wilma ravaged the area. I see more and more that folks are not taking hurricane season as seriously because of the long stretch without a storm. In 1992, Hurricane Andrew hit the South Florida area causing major devastation that was like nothing we have ever seen.
