***Tropical Outlook***
Good evening all. The tropics are beginning to heat up on this mid October evening. We are now tracking Fay, Invest 90 and Invest 91. None of these storms pose a direct threat to the US. Invest 90 will be watched just in case it brushes close enough to create some rough surf along the beaches.
***Tropical Outlook****
On this September 11, the low in the Bahamas remains disorganized and the Recon mission has been cancelled. Wind shear is expected to keep the tropical low in check and development is not likely.
The low will move to the west or west-southwest towards South Florida. Regardless of development, the system will bring heavy rain to areas that in the path of the low. you can view the model tracks of the low directly on our Doppler Radar images and loops.
** Tropical Outlook****
Good afternoon everybody! We are now tracking Invest 92 in the Atlantic. Thais is the area that is just offshore Florida in the Bahamas. Although the chances are low at this hour, those chances could increase some tomorrow. A look at the satellite shows some low level swirls starting to develop. The pressures in the area are currently quite high. A few of the models are showing a potential weak tropical storm hitting near Jupiter or south of there. Please remember this is not a forecast but information from a model run. There is some wind shear in the area that could hinder the development of this system.
***Updated Tropical Outlook on Invest 92*****
The updated tropical outlook indicates that shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles has increased over the past few hours. The area continues to suggest that organization is beginning. Satellite data also indicates that a closed low is forming. Winds near a small area in the center could be near Tropical Storm Force. A tropical depression or storm could form over the next couple of days. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Invest 92.
Tropical Models and Forecast Track:
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html
***Monday AM Tropical Outlook***Watching Invest 92****
As we are now in the second part of July, our eyes begin to look far to the West off the coast of Africa for the potential of tropical system development. Cape Verde storms are the most feared and become some of the strongest storms of the season.
We are now watching 3 areas of interest in the Atlantic. The first area is called Invest 92. This area represents the old remnants of Gabrielle. The chances of development are quite low due to only marginally conductive conditions.The second area of interest is Invest 91. This area has the highest chances of development but all the forecast models keep this system out in the open Atlantic.
**Atlantic Tropical Outlook**
Invest 92 in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea is now moving towards the West-North West at about 10 MPH. The system is producing wind gusts to gale force in the Eastern quadrant of the low. Thunderstorm activity continues to organize and a tropical depression is expected to form before the system reaches the Yucatan. There is a 80% chance the system will form into a tropical cyclone during the next several days. Although a good distance away, interests in the Gulf Of Mexico should be carefully monitoring this system.
**Special Tropical Outlook***
Surface observations have shown that a low pressure area, called Atlantic Invest 92, is forming near the tip of Honduras and the associated shower activity has become more concentrated. This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next few days. Interests in the Southern Gulf of Mexico need to watch this system carefully as it begins to develop.
Invest 92 is looking better organized and Ernesto is getting ready for his second landfall in Mexico.
Ernesto
LOCATION…18.3N 94.0W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.32 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA
Hi everybody. Ernesto is now crossing land and will continue to weaken as it crosses the Yucatan and Mexico. The system made landfall last night at around 11 PM. Our next player we will be tracking is Invest 92. The system actually has some good structure but it presently has a medium chance of development or 30%. The current models have the system coming in our general direction so we will have to keep tabs on it closely. I will bring you updates as they come ion. Please note in the satellite view that the next wave behind Invest 92 is getting ready to emerge from the coast of Africa.
