***Tropical Outlook***
Good evening all. The tropics are beginning to heat up on this mid October evening. We are now tracking Fay, Invest 90 and Invest 91. None of these storms pose a direct threat to the US. Invest 90 will be watched just in case it brushes close enough to create some rough surf along the beaches.
Tropical storm Sandy is gaining strength in the Caribbean. Reports from an air force recon plane indicate that Sandy is getting stronger. It is also evident that a ragged eye was beginning to form. The cyclone is moving faster and the short term track is basically unchanged with this advisory. Sandy is expected to move generally northward and then be influenced by upper level tough to its northwest as a ridge to the north of the cyclone weakens. There after, a second trough over the eastern US should start to kick Sandy more to the northeast. Please remember what we were saying about the potential for the system to affect the Northeast US.
Tropical storm Sandy may be something we will be talking about for a long time. For us here in Florida, we will see some gusty winds and the potential for rain coming in off the ocean over the next several days. For the Bahamas it could mean a serious storm with the potential of high winds and rain. This part of the forecast track is accurate with not many changes or tweaks forecast. Once the cyclone is in the Bahamas is where things may get interesting. If you look back at Debbie earlier in the season, you will remember how she was forecast to go one to the west and that track was eventually changed to the opposite direction? Well the same model that forecast that change (ECWMF) is forecasting Sandy to get trapped in the vicinity of the Bahamas and then being pulled towards the North East coast by a trough of low pressure. This model is bringing Sandy into New England as a powerful storm that has not been seen in decades. If this scenario takes place, Halloween will be met with a few tricks from Mother Nature in the North East US. Of course nobody knows which one of the two scenarios will take place but several other including Hurricane Track agree on the potential for this to happen. Models do not lie. They are based on real-time conditions that are forecast to occur. Residents along the East Coast should be watching this scenario with care over the next week.
We are looking at a potential severe weather situation from Tropical Storm Sandy. All the ingredients for rapid intensification seem to exist. The low wind shear and high oceanic water temperatures are all there. In addition Sandy is moving across virgin waters where no other severe hurricane has passed in recent time. I think that Sandy could be a potential threat for areas other then the Bahamas. The situation is very complex especially given the time of year the storm is forming in. Most of the shorter term models have the system moving into the region of the Bahamas and the potential for the system to be strong is definitely there.
