***Tropical Outlook***
Good evening all. The tropics are beginning to heat up on this mid October evening. We are now tracking Fay, Invest 90 and Invest 91. None of these storms pose a direct threat to the US. Invest 90 will be watched just in case it brushes close enough to create some rough surf along the beaches.
Invest 91L has formed in the Atlantic and is being carefully watched by the NHC. The system could become our first tropical system of the 2014 season. The models do not have a good handle on the system as of yet as the model options are all over the place. Once the system gets better defined the models should pick up the Invest and get a better handle on the future path.
We are now watching 3 areas of interest in the Atlantic. The first area is called Invest 92. This area represents the old remnants of Gabrielle. The chances of development are quite low due to only marginally conductive conditions.The second area of interest is Invest 91. This area has the highest chances of development but all the forecast models keep this system out in the open Atlantic.
***Low Center Developing Just Off The Melbourne, Florida Coast***
A weak area of low pressure has formed just off the coast of Melbourne, Florida. The shower activity remains disorganized and the circulation can be clearly seen on Doppler radar. Most of the precipitation is south and east of the center. The system has a medium chance of tropical development as it moves north just off the Florida East coast.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the coastal areas of South East and Central Florida Florida today.
The chances of Dorian’s remnants regenerating became less of an isssue this afternoon after the NOAA aircraft examined the storm. The system has a circulation but in the middle atmosphere and not near the surface. In addition, pressures are remaining high. The remants will increaes our rain chances later this week towards the weekend. It is still not possible to determine how much rain will come out of the system but that information should be more clear in the next day or two.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE…ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN…
IS PRODUCING A SMALL BUT CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS…AS WELL AS GALE-FORCE WINDS…A FEW HUNDRED MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS OF A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER…ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO THE REFORMATION OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION…AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE…50 PERCENT…
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY…AND MOVE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.
AS if we did not have enough to track we now have a new system called Depression 9. This system is way out by Africa but global models and the forecast track are keeping it a fish storm at the present time. It will still have to be watched to be sure it takes the forecasted track.
Invest 91 is still just a tropical wave but it will also be carefully watched for any development. Even if development did occur the close proximity to land woulld keep it from getting very strong. The system is currently moving through the Bahamas and will produce rain in South Florida this weekend.
