NOAA has released their 2021 Hurricane forecast for 2021. They are predicting 13 to 20 named storms with 6 to 10 becomming Hurricanes and 3 to 5 becomming major hurricanes of category 3 or higher.
Although the 2021 hurricane season is NOT expected to be as bad as the 2020 season, it is expected to be above normal. There was a lot of talk about what areas the hurricanes could hit, it was plainly noted that impact areas cannot be predicted until a storm is about a week out. Early predictions of impact areas is simply not accurate. NOAA has also stated that they have new technologies that they will be using this season such as drones that will be released into the storms and on the ocean surface for a better understanding of what is going on inside the storm. This information will be put into the models to allow for more accurate forecasts.
One question that was asked is if Global Warming was the reason we are seeing more storms. NOAA plainly stated that there is no evidence to prove that. They stated that better technology is allowing them to pick out and mention storms that are often weak that were likely not mentioned in the past. Some of the storms in 2020 were in the sub tropics and were sometimes only short lived systems. These storms will still count towards the total, however. In other words, our advanced satellite systems are finding rotations that may of been missed in the past.
Another question was asked about how Florida or the Gulf will fare this season. Again, the answer was nobody knows until a storm is about a week out.
When FEMA addressed the group, they stated that the best defense against a Hurricane is to be prepared and have a plan. You should have a plan on where you will stay if you have to evacuate and to do an inventory of your supplies and replenish or refresh any items that are missing or need to be replaced.
Now is the time to get out those generators and test them out. The last thing you need is a generator that will not start when the power goes out. Also be sure to have coverings for your windows, This year would be a great time to get Hurricane Shutters if you do not already have them. If you are planning on using plywood, it is important to remember that it may be in short supply this year as well as very expensive. It would make more sense to have a permanent solution such as shutters.
In short, nobody knows where or if a storm will make landfall so it is a good idea to have a plan no matter where you live along the East Coast of the US or the Gulf.