Good morning all. Tropical Storm Gonzalo continues to intensify and a Hurricane Warning has been posted for the British Virgin Islands.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Gonzalo
this morning found 850 mb maximum flight-level winds of 64 kt along
with reliable SFMR surface winds near 55 kt in the northeastern
quadrant, plus a central pressure of 992 mb. In addition, the
Antigua-Barbuda Meteorological Service recently reported a sustained
wind of 58 kt and a gust to 76 kt. Based on these data, the
intensity has been increased to 55 kt. Reports from the aircraft
radar and Antigua-Barbuda also indicate the center of Gonzalo passed
over Antigua between 1300-1400 UTC.
The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. Gonzalo is expected to
continue to move west-northwestward today, and turn toward the
northwest after 24 hours when the cyclone clears the northern Lesser
Antilles. After that, the mid-level ridge to the north of Gonzalo is
expected to break down as a strong mid-latitude trough moving off of
the U.S. east and southeast coasts approaches the area north of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in about 72 hours. The weakening ridge
will allow Gonzalo to move slowly northward, and then turn toward
the northeast and accelerate on Days 4 and 5. This will keep the cyclone well east of the mainland US.
Tropical Models and Forecast Track:
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html
Tropical Updates Fresh and Up To Date:
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Web_Forecasts.html
Full Coverage from Hurricane Central:
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Joe_s_Disco_Hurricane_Page.html
