**Tropical Season 2014 New Updated Outlook***
We are just shy of the halfway mark in the 2014 hurricane season and so far things have been extremely quiet. It looks like there is a good chance that quiet will continue. The odds for a below average season have been raised from 50% to 70% as of August 8, according to NOAA.
The new numbers call for 0-2 major hurricanes of category 3 or higher and 3-6 hurricanes total.
**Tropical Update***
As of 11 AM Bertha has become our second hurricane of the 2014 season. Since we are only about a third of the way into the season, we could see several more before all is said and done. The conditions were right to keep this system away from the US mainland. A combination of an offshore subtropical ridge and a trough over Florida helped to steer Bertha away from any land areas.
Bertha will have no direct effects on land with the exception of some rough surf and a higher risk of rip currents.
***Morning Bertha Update***
Tropical Storm Bertha is now moving near the Southeastern Bahamas. The Tropical Storm watches for the Central Bahamas has been dropped.
The cloud pattern of Bertha has gotten better organized overnight. banding features are starting to finally materialize as the system moves into an area of lower shear and high water temperatures.
NOAA Aircraft confirms that the low-level circulation is getting better defined.
The cyclone will continue to move around the edge of the ridge and move north and then north-east out to sea.
Tropical Storm Bertha is entering the Mona Passage…..
System remains disorganized with 50 MPH winds…..
New watches and warnings issued for the Bahamas……
Expected to stay well offshore of Florida…….
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS…INCLUDING THE ACKLINS…CROOKED
ISLAND…LONG CAY…THE INAGUAS…MAYAGUANA…AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
Bertha 11 AM Track Update…
Bertha is currently experiencing the southwesterly vertical wind shear and is picking up dry air located near the storm. This will limit any other intensification in the next 48 hours. There after, conditions will improve and the shear will relax. This will allow for at least modest strengthening.
Previous 8 AM Discussion….
***Bertha 8 AM Update****
Good Friday morning everybody! Bertha continues ro be a 45 MPH Tropical Storm at this hour. NOAA aircraft is currently in the storm to see if there are any changes.
***Tropical Storm Bertha Forms***
Bertha has formed East of the Southern Antilles. Tropical storm Watches and Warnings issued. Maximum sustained winds are 45 MPH.
Berths is running along the southern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge. which was located by the NOAA jet. The model runs are all in good agreement. As Bertha passes the islands, she will then begin a turn to the north-west and then northward as the cyclone moves around the western portion of the ridge.
***Invest 93 Tropical Update****
As of this morning, the conditions for development of Invest 93 are again much better. Near tropical storm wind gusts are already affecting the Windward Islands. NOAA has a team on standby in case a recon mission is needed today. If conditions warrant, watches and warnings could be posted today for the Windward Islands.
The continuous motion to the west is going to shift the track to the west as well. The system could be very near the Dominican Republic on Sunday.
***Tropical Update 5 PM***
Invest 93 has been gradually loosing its convection through the day. The chances of development have been dropped from 70% to 50%. Folks in the lesser Antilles should still pay attention in case there are any changes.
The model tracks will likely change drastically if the system ever gets going again.We will update you if there are any changes.
Tropical Models and Forecast Track:
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html
Tropical Updates Fresh and Up To Date:
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Web_Forecasts.html
***Invest 93 2 PM Update***
Although very organized, the convection with 93 is limited at this hour. The invest continues to the west. Remember that a weaker system will travel more in a westerly direction then a stronger system. As a system develops, its tendency to recurve increases. If the system remains weak for longer then expected the models could shift more to the west.
There is a very high chance of development of this cyclone. we could be looking at Bertha before the day is over.
***Invest 93 Update***
Over the past few hours, it appears that Invest 93 is very near a tropical depression. Surface winds are beginning to close off under a burst of deep convection. Tropical cyclogensis is most likely beginning to take place. This system will have to be watched much more closely then Invest 92. All the conditions are there: Deep convection, light wind shear and high ocean temperatures. The system will be heading towards the Lesser Antilles first.
Stay tuned as we begin to track what soon will be our next tropical system.
