***Gonzalo Now A Strong Category 3 System Taking Dead Aim At Bermuda****
There have been some changes overnight in the overall structure of the cyclone. It appears that Gonzalo is slowly weakening as it aims at Bermuda. It will arrive sometime later today. Regardless, it will still be a major, dangerous hurricane.
Gonzalo appears to be slowly filling. Satellite imagery shows a net
degradation in the organization of the cloud pattern over the last
6 to 12 hours, with somewhat warmer cloud top temperatures within
the central dense overcast and some erosion of deep convection over
the western semicircle of the circulation. Satellite data suggest
also that current eyewall replacement is nearly complete, with the
last vestiges of the inner eyewall dissipating within a larger 30
n mi diameter eye. The initial intensity has been lowered to 115
kt, which is just a bit above the latest ADT estimate of 110 kt.
The next reconnaissance aircraft should arrive around 1200 UTC to
better assess Gonzalo’s intensity and structure.
With Gonzalo encountering slowly increasing shear and over
somewhat cooler waters, only gradual weakening is expected
during the next 12 to 24 hours. Regardless, Gonzalo should remain a
dangerous hurricane as it passes Bermuda later today.
Significant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely if Gonzalo
continues on the current NHC forecast track. Although specific
amounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an
estimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a
major hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with
Gonzalo.
Tropical Models and Forecast Track:
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html
Tropical Updates Fresh and Up To Date:
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Web_Forecasts.html
Full Coverage from Hurricane Central:
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Joe_s_Disco_Hurricane_Page.html
Some Bermuda links:
