Good morning everybody. The tropics remain quiet although there is chatter about something forming from the tail end of a stalled frontal system later this week off the SE coast of the US. This potential system could drag moisture our way in Florida over the weekend. We will carefully watch to see if anything actually develops.
As we prepare for the Memorial Day Weekend another hurricane season is just on the horizon. The 2014 hurricane season is just about ready to start and already we are seeing action in the Pacific. The fact that all the major agencies, including NOAA, are projecting a lower then normal season should not make you feel all that comfortable.
The next agency and probably the most famous, William Grey of the Colorado State University, has released their predictions for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season. A few days ago we released the prediction of Weather Bell.
As with Weather Bell, Colorado State is predicting a below average hurricane season. They are predicting 9 total storms with three becoming Hurricanes and only one becoming major with winds exceeding category 3 strength. This is an amazing low prediction given the trend that was happening in the Atlantic just a couple of years ago.
El Nino will in all likelihood be developing this month. El Nino is the opposite of La Nina and is a warming of the Pacific Ocean waters. This scenario can affect the weather around the globe and might be be a reason for the sudden drop off of tropical activity. During El Nino years, we typically see less tropical activity because the upper level winds blow the tops off the storms. Even during these years it is still important to be prepared, however. Storms can hit almost anytime and that includes El Nino seasons. In addition, El Nino can bring colder then normal temperatures to the south east and Florida. Some of the coldest temperatures occur during these events.
