As we prepare for the Memorial Day Weekend another hurricane season is just on the horizon. The 2014 hurricane season is just about ready to start and already we are seeing action in the Pacific. The fact that all the major agencies, including NOAA, are projecting a lower then normal season should not make you feel all that comfortable.
If you are a Floridan I think you will well remember the season of 2004. That was the year that Florida became a bullseye for every storm that formed. It might surprise you that 2004 was an El Nino season. So exactly why did we see all this activity in an El Nino year? El Nino is historically is known to squash the inner workings of hurricanes by producing strong upper level winds that stream across the tropical Atlantic. Ina weak El Nino scenario, the winds might not be strong enough to keep the system at bay.
The main reason for all the hurricane strikes in 2004 was the location og the Bermuda High. The High pressure ridge in most years will actually act as a protective mechanism by blocking would be storms and shooting them harmlessly out to sea. In 2004, all the storms were blocked from going north and they recurved back into Florida instead of moving out to sea. This high persisted for most of the 2004 season.
In 1992, a high pressure ridge drove Andrew right into the south Florida Peninsula. Again, this was also an El Nino year. The storms motion was again controlled by the Bermuda High. Hurricane Sandy that hit the northeast was also a good example of how a high pressure ridge can block a storm and drive it right into the coast.
For these reasons I urge all East Coast residents to not become complacent because of the current Hurricane Season Forecast. Hurricanes do not care if there is an El Nino or there isn’t. They will strike whether you live in a small town or a huge hi tech city. They know no boundaries nor do they discriminate. If you live on the East Coast you are at risk. Please be prepared this season and be ready. This no longer just applies to Florida. This applies from the North East all the way down the East Coast US to the Gulf.
NOAA predicts 8 to 13 Tropical Storms of which 6 could become hurricanes. One or Two will be major with winds of category 3 or higher.
The image shows the many storms of the 2013 season. We were lucky they all stayed out to sea.
Your tropical weather forecast updated in real time:
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Web_Forecasts.html
