The next agency and probably the most famous, William Grey of the Colorado State University, has released their predictions for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season. A few days ago we released the prediction of Weather Bell.
As with Weather Bell, Colorado State is predicting a below average hurricane season. They are predicting 9 total storms with three becoming Hurricanes and only one becoming major with winds exceeding category 3 strength. This is an amazing low prediction given the trend that was happening in the Atlantic just a couple of years ago.
It has been eight years since a major storm has touched the borders of the Eastern United States. The last actual land falling hurricane was Wilma in 2005. Although Sandy did catastrophic damage, the storm was technically not a hurricane when it made landfall so it is not counted as a landfall.
These predictions are a planning tool only. It does not mean that folks can say we do not have to worry this year. Like I repeatably said, it only takes one bad storm to make it a bad season.
All of us probably remember Hurricane Andrew. It was the storm that totally changed both the way we deal with home and business insurance and also dictated the way our buildings are built today. Today’s building codes are all because of what was learned after Andrew hit South Florida. It was August 24, 1992 when portions of the South Florida real estate were changed forever. The category 5 storm was small and compact but extremely powerful. Like a huge tornado, it ripped through South Florida with a relentless vengeance.
Andrew hit in an El Nino year and in a season where only 4 named storms had formed. For many, the year was considered a much below average hurricane season but to the folks where the storm impacted it was a completely different feeling. This is why we must prepare regardless of the predictions for the season.
The probability for at least one major hurricane of category 3 or more hitting the East Coast is 35%. The average for last century is 52%
The probability of a major hurricane hitting the US East Coast including Florida is 20%. The average is 31%
The chance of a major hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville is 19%. The average is 30%.
A lot of factors are taken into consideration when making these predictions. Not only is statistical data used but also sea surface temperatures, the absence or presence of El Nino, vertical wind shear and other model statistics.
What we probably will have to be most concerned with this season are storms that form close to land. Often times these types of systems will remain tropical storms but if they move slow enough, the effects from heavy rains and flooding can be devastating. We have seen many a weak system travel through Florida or the Carolinas bringing death and destruction from water.
While nobody has a crystal ball, it is safe to say that the prediction can allow us to breathe a cautiously optimistic sigh of relief but it does not exempt us from making the normal hurricane season preparations. If a storm threatens along the East Coast, we will be here to relay as much information as possible before the system hits land. Always remember that once a hurricane warning is issued for your area, be sure to listen to local government for information on evacuations and storm surge information.
For the latest Tropical Information Click Below:
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Web_Forecasts.html
For the Latest Tropical Models:
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html
Graphical Tropical Outlook:
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Graphical_Tropical_Weather_Outlook.html
Graphic of all the storms in 2013
This forecast gives us a ray of hope this coming hurricane season.