Archive for Tropic Watch 2015

El Nino Could Weaken For 2016 Hurricane Season

Good Sunday evening everybody. There is an old saying that what goes up must come down. That is going to be the case with the present El Nino that is affecting our weather this winter. The El Nino protected us well this past hurricane season by creating strong upper level winds that protected us from hurricanes.

As you know, El Nino is a warming of the waters of the tropical Pacific. This warming then in turn affects weather patterns throughout the world. It normally helps to protect us from hurricanes by increasing the wind shear in the tropical Atlantic.

Tracking Invest 92 In The Caribbean.

We are now tracking Invest 92. The broad area in the Caribbean has finally got the attention of the NHC and is now being monitered. forecast

Over the past couple of weeks, models have been hinting at some activity in the Gulf. These models have been consistent and ip appears they will be correct. Even if the low devellops, it has to move across the Yucatan Penninsula before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico. This could seriously disrupt the circulation.

Potential Tropical Activity Near Florida Late October

Good evening everybody. Right now the tropics are quiet but both the Euro and the GFS are insisting of a tropical entity in the Gulf in the October 20 – 25 time period. this is the leates GFS model run which confirms this. Although a long way out, we will be watching this closely.

 

Joaquin Still Battering The Bahamas

Good morning everybody. Joaquin continues to batter the Central Bahamas with category 4 winds of 130 mph. The cyclone is now undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. The system is now finally beginning the turn and is moving towards the North West very slowly. The wind field has expanded and it is affecting areas all the way to Cuba and parts of the Dominican Republic.forecast

00Z New GFS Model Run | Shifted West

The new hot off the press 00Z American Model has shifted west from the previous runs. We will have to watch and see if this trend continues. This is why you still need to be vigilant till this system is finally out of here.

 

 

Joaquin Now Category 4 Storm!!

***Joaquin Now A Category 4 Hurricane of 130 MPH. The Bahamas are now getting hit hard.*****Pressure continues to fall 936 MB*******This is an intense major hurricane!!********

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern
Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Bimini
* Andros Island

New GFS Model Keeps Joaquin Offshore

The new GFS model is more in line with what the Euro has been saying for days. It is keeping the cyclone well offshore the US coast. The big question is if this new model data will affect the new track at 2. We will have to see. The model trends seem to be tracking towards the east. These models might shift back and forth even more before an exact track is determined.

There are no watches or warnings for the US at this time. Meanwhile, the Bahamas are getting pounded with a 125 MPH hurricane on their doorstep.

Hurricane Joaquin Now A Category 3 Hurricane!!

***Please note this a long post but contains a lot of important information***We are a bit late but it takes time to review all the information and models.
Joaquin Is Now a MAJOR hurricane with sustained winds of 115 MPH**** The Bahamas are getting battered and will continue to do so tonight. The minimum central pressure is now 951 MB.***

A dangerous storm surge of 5 to 8 feet is possible in the Bahamas tonight. 5 to 10 inches of rain are possible in the path of this storm. Swells will begin to affect portions of the SE coast of the United States.

The Latest GFS Model Animation of Joaquin

The latest (18Z) model animation of Joaquin is quiote consistent with most of the model runs as well as the forecast track. Watches and warnings will likely be needed for some part of the East Coast Thursday night.

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The latest GFS Model | Joaquin Threatens US East Coast

The latest GFS model still wants to insist on a major hurricane approaching the Mid Atlantic States. Although this is only one scenario  most of the other models are following suit as well. An exact location for an impact will be determined by how far south and west the cyclone goes before being dragged to the north by the trough.

 

 

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