***Joaquin Becomes A Hurricane****
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding
Andros Island
Winds have increased to 75 MPH and the central pressure has dropped to 971 MB.
The latest GFS model run shows Joaquin making a hook into the Eastern US as a major hurricane.
Good evening everybody. AS of 11 PM**** Hurricane Watches have been issued for the Central Bahamas******
Maximum sustained winds are now 70 MPH and Joaquin is expected to be a hurricane tonight.
The cloud pattern of Joaquin continues to get better organized and the outflow is becoming much more pronounced. The cyclone is over very warm water and in an increasingly favorable environment. Many of the models are showing significant strengthening and the NHC forecast for intensity could be very conservative.
Good afternoon everybody. We have a very interesting scenario unfolding as Joaquin continues to baffle the experts. The system is still moving West and at least one of the major models has it reaching the Bahamas before turning north. The shear that has been holding the system back is gradually going to weaken allowing intensification of the cyclone. Once past the Bahamas the models are mixed from a landfall near Virginia as a major storm all the way to a recurve out to sea. Until the system gets caught up in a steering current the models are going to be only a minimal guide.
***Now Tracking Tropical Storm Joaquin****
Depression 11 has strengthened to Tropical Storm Joaquin sooner then expected. Winds are now at 40 MPH with a cetral pressure of 1002 MB.
Satellite has shown that the cloud pattern has thunderstorm activity has increased and has gotten better organized over the past few hours.
The system is actually moving towards the southwest. The movement should then begin towards the west. This westward movement will likely continue for a couple of days. The system is being blocked by an upper level ridge.
Tropical Depression 11 remains poorly organized this morning since it is encountering upper level wind shear. The system could bring heavy rains to areas to the north including New England regardless of development.
There has been little change in the cloud pattern this morning. Wind shear is forecast to make conditions for this system quite harsh. This should lead to eventual dissipation of the cyclone. It should be noted that intensification is possible in the short term and it could become a tropical storm.
Good evening everybody. Advisories have now begun on newly formed Depression 11. The area is located between the Bahamas and Bermuda. It is likely that this system will never actually become a named storm but even if it does, wind shear win the upper levels of the atmosphere will likely tear it apart. It will probably never have a direct impact on land.
***Now Tracking Invest 98 and 99****
Good morning folks, we are now tracking Invests 98 and 99 in the Atlantic We are watching two areas on interest one in the Gulf and a new one that has just formed off the coast of Florida.
***Tropical Storm Erika Could Pose A Significant Threat For Florida Or Another SE Coast Location*****
Erika is still a tropical storm but global models and the official track are telling the story. For the first time in many years (and an El Nino year I might add) Florida could be under the gun.
The primary steering current is being provided by the subtropical ridge to the north of Erika. This is keeping her on a primarily westward motion.
***Tropical Storm Erika Forms In Atlantic****
Good evening everybody. Unlike Danny, Tropical Storm Erika is likely going to keep more momentum as the cyclone travels through the Atlantic and Caribbean at a pretty good clip. Erika is forecast to steadily increase over at least the next 48 hours. Later in the 
forecast period, Erika will likely weaken to some degree as she encounters an increase in vertical shear. Since this storm is larger then Danny, it will take a little more of a beating before giving in.
