**Special Tropical Outlook****
An area of low pressure has formed in the Caribbean and it has caught the attention of the NHC.
This area is in a location that could be conductive for development and is forecast by global models to enter the Gulf Of Mexico and be near the West Coast of Florida in about a week. As of now, the models are showing a weak tropical system but a lot can happen over the next few days as the area progresses.
Archive for Tropic Watch 2013
Potential Tropical Threat for Eastern Gulf next Week
Category: Tropic Watch 2013 |
The Tropics Remain Quiet and Cooler Weather For Florida
The promised cooler weather has finally arrived and wow does it feel good. I just ran the latest ECMWF model (Euro) and we do not see anything of a tropical nature forming through next Monday. This time of year, we look to the Caribbean area for tropical development. We are past the long tracker type of storms that come off of Africa. There is plenty of warm water but it appears the atmospheric conditions are just not there. Could we be past the point of worry for the season? Quite possibly but We still have the entire month of October to watch. Remember that some farly potent storms have developed in October over the years and it seems that storms in October have been getting a bit more frequent. Do not put the tracking map away just yet!
Category: Tropic Watch 2013 |
Tags: Quiet Tropics
Tropical Outlook for September 13, 2013…Friday.
It is another busy day in the tropics. The good news is that nothing is going to impact the mainland US! We are actually on the down slide to the 2013 hurricane season and so far so good. Gabrilelle and Humberto will remain at sea and newly formed Ingrid will cause severe flooding and mudslides in Mexico. Our prayers go out to this area since they were hit with flooding and mudslides less then a month ago.
Category: Tropic Watch 2013 |
Higher Rain Chances Today Along The Treasure Coast
The rain chances along the Treasure Coast are elevated today due to an upper level low that is sitting East of Florida. This low will drift towards the state today and we will watch for any organization. You might want to have an umbrella handy today.
The tropics are beginning to blaze right now but the good news is that none of the systems are posing a threat to the United States. Remember that a good portion of the hurricanes that have hit Florida have been in the second half of the season which officially starts today. October is also quite a busy month for Florida as far as storm go. We still have a good 2 months to go before we are in the clear.
Category: Gabrielle, Humberto, Tropic Watch 2013 |
Tags: hurricane Humberto, treasure coast weather, tropical storm gabrielle
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Reignites While The Gulf Sees Some Action Coming
*** Tropical Outlook****
As expected, the tropics are gaining steam and we are now tracking 2 tropical systems. The first and closest to us is Gabrielle. Gabrielle regenerated overnight into a tropical storm. Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for Bermuda. There is no threat to the East Coast US.
Humberto is way out in the Atlantic and will probably be our first hurricane of the season. Again, there is no threat to the US from this system.
Now Tracking Invests 91, 92 and 98 In The Atlantic
We are now watching 3 areas of interest in the Atlantic. The first area is called Invest 92. This area represents the old remnants of Gabrielle. The chances of development are quite low due to only marginally conductive conditions.
The second area of interest is Invest 91. This area has the highest chances of development but all the forecast models keep this system out in the open Atlantic.
Depression 7 Forms In The Caribbean
Aircraft and satellite observations have concluded that the low pressure are in the Caribbean now has a closed circulation. It is now Depression 7.
The area around the depression is conductive for further development. The good news is that, at least for now, the model tracks and the forecast are leaning well away from the mainland US. Remember that with almost every storm, these models shift back and forth as time goes on. Since lots of new information is being input into the models from the plane, these models and forecast tracks will come together with even more accuracy in the coming model runs.
Category: Depression 7 |
Tags: tropical depression 7
Tropical Invest 97 Getting Better Organized
Good morning everybody. Could we be looking at Gabrielle in the coming days? The chances are currently in favor of that happening. Conditions appear to be favorable for development but soon after, the cyclone will have to deal with land interactions of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. This will certainly put a damper on any development that initially starts. Once clear of the islands, the system will be entering the Bahamas chain. This is where we will have to really start watching as the system gets into the very warm waters of that region.
Category: Tropic Watch 2013 |
Is It Time To Retire The Tracking Maps?
As we head into the “Peak” of the hurricane season, there is no peak to speak of as of this writing. The Atlantic is as quiet as it can be with inly minimal activity to report. There are 3 areas that are being watched but all have a relatively low chance of development. The area of disturbed weather near the Yucatan could briefly become a cyclone before coming ashore near Mexico. The high pressure ridge to the north will help keep that system well south of Texas.
Tracking Invest 97 In The Atlantic
Now Tracking Invest 97. Happy Labor Day weekend everybody! The tropics remain quiet as we approach the peak of the hurricane season on September 10. As of now, there have been no hurricanes in the Atlantic.
Today, we are watching newly formed Invest 97. This area of low pressure is in the Central Atlantic approaching the Lesser Antilles. The system has a low chance of developing over the next 5 days. We will keep a watch on the system although it poses no immediate threat to anybody in the immediate future.