The promised cooler weather has finally arrived and wow does it feel good. I just ran the latest ECMWF model (Euro) and we do not see anything of a tropical nature forming through next Monday. This time of year, we look to the Caribbean area for tropical development. We are past the long tracker type of storms that come off of Africa. There is plenty of warm water but it appears the atmospheric conditions are just not there. Could we be past the point of worry for the season? Quite possibly but We still have the entire month of October to watch. Remember that some farly potent storms have developed in October over the years and it seems that storms in October have been getting a bit more frequent. Do not put the tracking map away just yet!
This year might actually put a damper on the global warming theory that has long been blamed for the severe storms and hurricanes. In the past few years, there has been a decrease in the intensity of hurricanes in the Northern Hemisphere as well as a record sea ice pack in the Arctic. I think we are simply looking at year to year variations of weather patterns rather than a global warming epidemic. That point, I am sure, will be argued.
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