Hi everybody. It appears that 99L is getting slowly organized. There is no current low level circulation but water temperatures are high, wind shear is low and the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) is well to the north of the system. If the invest tries to climb north, there is a completely different story. The wind shear is higher and the air is drier as a result of the Saharan Dust. This will help to keep the storm in check should it start to move more to the north.It is still too far out to project a path but it is a real good bet if you live in the Windward Islands that it will be a stormy weekend so watch out for that if you are going on a cruise to that region. Once the system passes the islands it is our turn to be on alert. If the system takes a more northwesterly track towards the US east coast, it will encounter shear which could be a saving grace for the US. Stay posted as things can change quickly. Be ready, be safe. http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Web_Forecasts.html
The GFS model predicts a 50 MPH tropical storm as it passes the islands.
