Invest 99 is getting together and it now has a high chance or 60% chance of development. The models are in good agreement keeping the system in the Caribbean. The first place that has to be ready will be the Windward Islands. The system will most likely remain on the weak side for now after development occurs. Many of the models are taking the system right over the mountainous regions of Hispanola and Cuba. We will have to see if that trend continues. Remember that models get a much better grip on a system after development.We will keep you posted on any developments throughout the day.
Archive for Invest 99
Invest 99 Update
Hi everybody. It appears that 99L is getting slowly organized. There is no current low level circulation but water temperatures are high, wind shear is low and the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) is well to the north of the system. If the invest tries to climb north, there is a completely different story. The wind shear is higher and the air is drier as a result of the Saharan Dust. This will help to keep the storm in check should it start to move more to the north.It is still too far out to project a path but it is a real good bet if you live in the Windward Islands that it will be a stormy weekend so watch out for that if you are going on a cruise to that region. Once the system passes the islands it is our turn to be on alert. If the system takes a more northwesterly track towards the US east coast, it will encounter shear which could be a saving grace for the US. Stay posted as things can change quickly. Be ready, be safe. http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Web_Forecasts.html
Invest 99 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
Hi everybody. We are now tracking Invest 99 in the far Eastern Atlantic. This area formed from one of the many waves that has left the coast of Africa. As you know, there has been a large amount of Saharan sand running across the Atlantic. This sand tends to dry out the atmosphere and limits the formation of tropical cyclones. This sand has decreased and the air is getting moist with enough ocean heat to allow the formation of a tropical system. Right now the air has some instability in the atmosphere that will limit how fast the system develops. Remember that storms that develop farther out in the Atlantic have a better chance of doing a recurve if the High pressure ridge allows it. Storms that form closer to our region have a better chance of hitting the mainland as there are fewer chances of the cyclone catching a weakness in the ridge in order to move harmlessly out to sea. The computer models are quite solid in a westward track into the Windward Islands. It is once the system approaches this region that we really have to start getting ready for the potential of a threat. This is just a reminder that the season is winding up and you need to start getting ready. It has been 6 years since we have had a direct hit and we are overdue. Start getting now while the threat is still over a week away. I cannot stress this enough.
Category: Invest 99, Tropic Watch 2012 |