***Please note this a long post but contains a lot of important information***We are a bit late but it takes time to review all the information and models.
Joaquin Is Now a MAJOR hurricane with sustained winds of 115 MPH**** The Bahamas are getting battered and will continue to do so tonight. The minimum central pressure is now 951 MB.***
A dangerous storm surge of 5 to 8 feet is possible in the Bahamas tonight. 5 to 10 inches of rain are possible in the path of this storm. Swells will begin to affect portions of the SE coast of the United States.
Joaquin has gone into rapid intensification mode and at this point, there is nothing to stop this process. This is almost like a hurricane Hugo scenario where the forecast is for the system to turn and it just simply refuses. Fortunately, we have a lot better technology then we had back then and we can forecast a track without evacuating an entire coastline.
Joaquin continues to move slowly to the southwest and is expected to do so for another 24 hours. It will be a long day and night for the folks in the Bahamas. They have our prayers.
The ridge holding Joaquin down is expected to weaken on Friday as a trough deepens and cuts off over the SE United States.
Most of the models are still bringing the system into the south east / mid Atlantic region. The only exception is the Euro which still keeps the storm offshore. Out of respect for this model, the NHC is erring on the side of caution and is keeping the track to the right of the majority of the models. The hurricane could reach category 4 before all is said and done.
Here are key messages from the National Hurricane Center that should be reviewed if you are in the path of this storm.
1. Preparations to protect life and property within the warning
areas in the Central Bahamas should be completed now.
2. Confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours remains
low, since we have one normally excellent model that keeps Joaquin
far away from the United States east coast. The range of possible
outcomes is still large, and includes the possibility of a major
hurricane landfall in the Carolinas.
3. Every effort is being made to provide the forecast models with
as much data as possible. The NOAA G-IV jet has begun a series of
missions in the storm environment, and the National Weather Service
has begun launching extra balloon soundings.
4. Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days
away, it’s too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge
impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Regardless of Joaquin’s
track, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal
flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern
states through the weekend.
5. A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be
required as early as Thursday evening.
6. Many portions of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing
heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. These
heavy rains are likely to continue for the next few days, even if
the center of Joaquin stays offshore. The resulting inland flood
potential could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast, and even more substantial inland flooding is
possible if Joaquin later passes near or over these same areas.
Please review your hurricane plans if you live in any of the areas within the cone. Take all preparedness seriously. Follow all instructions from your local weather service office or government officials. #joaquin #tropwx #hurricane #cat3
Full Coverage from Hurricane Central:
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Joe_s_Disco_Hurrican…
