I know its only March but Hurricane Season 2014 will be here before you know it. The initial prediction was indicating an El Nino situation which typically reduces the number of storms. It is important to remember that it only takes one storm to make it a bad year. In fact the year that Andrew hit we were in an El Nino scenario.
It is best to be ready no matter what the forecast calls for.
There will be a few changes this year in the way that the NHC issues advisories. First is the cone of error. That cone will be made smaller this year. With new technologies and improvements in forecasting techniques, more accurate forecasts are possible. This has allowed the use of a smaller cone to indicate the potential strike zone,
This year the 5 day outlook will be mainstream. Last year the NHC introduced it as an experimental product but this year it will a mainstream event. With the 5 day outlook, it makes it easier to plan for potential storms that might form in the Caribbean or the Atlantic.
Probably one of the biggest killers of a hurricane is the storm surge. It is very difficult to get people to evacuate when these threats exist. This is partially due to the confusion that is often associated with a storm surge forecast. This year a new storm surge map will be introduced that will plainly outline the areas that are in the most danger of tidal flooding from a surge. If you live near the coast or in a location that is susceptible to storm surge, you need to evacuate when told to do so. It is the number one killer in a hurricane.
The new forecast numbers should be coming out soon and we will post them as soon as they are released.
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Web_Forecasts.html
