It is only February but us weather folk are already looking at the 2014 hurricane season. As of today, we have not seen a major hurricane hit in Florida since hurricane Wilma in 2005. That is a long stretch and is actually somewhat unusual. The big question is what are the predictions for this year? Well, 2014 may not be an active season since our friend, El Nino, may take shape by the peak of the tropical cyclone season.
You have to remember that any predictions that are done ahead of time may or may not come true. There have been years that low activity was predicted and we had a busy season and the same has held true when a busy season was predicted and the season came and went with little fanfare. It only takes one bad storm to make the season a memorable one. Hurricane Andrew was a classic example of an El Nino year freak storm.
Right now, we are still in a slight La Nina state where the tropical Pacific is slightly on the cool side. By peak season, this is expected to change as the PDO goes from a negative to a positive state. The result is almost always a warming of the tropical Pacific which in turn creates an El Nino ENSO.
As in the past couple of years, things like instability and Saharan Dust have all helped in squelching any storms that tried to form. That should again be the case this season as storms may struggle to gain solid ground as they attempt to form. If storms are starved of moisture and are bombarded with strong trade winds, they will likely perish long before their destructive winds hit any land areas.
Another factor that storms need to thrive is warm ocean temperatures. The tropical Atlantic has cooled down considerably from last year and although it will warm up again with the summer sun, a cooler ocean will take longer to warm up to the needed temperatures for a tropical system to flourish.
All in all, the 2014 season looks like an unfavorable year for hurricane formation. However, even small storms that form close to land can create dangerous conditions from torrential flooding rains. Remember, you do not always need high winds to have problems from a tropical system. If you live in Florida, you know exactly what I am talking about.
Another season evaluation will be put out again sometime in May as we get closer to the Atlantic tropical hurricane season. At that time, we will be able to give exact numbers as to how many hurricanes and tropical storms we think will form.
For now, I recommend starting to get your hurricane plan together and plan your hurricane supply list. Regardless of predictions, you need to be prepared for each and every season as though it will be a bad one. It only takes one (1) bad storm to make the season one to remember!
Our hope is that we will be looking at a screen just like the one shown below: “No Active Storms”.
Tropical Weather Interactive Map: http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Web_Forecasts.html
Hurricane Central: http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Joe_s_Disco_Hurricane_Page.html
