Today marks the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2015. We are currently in an extreme “Hurricane Drought” that has not been seen in many years. In fact some locations such as Tampa have not seen a major hurricane since 1921. In that era, there were silent movies and booze was not even legal! The same goes for parts of North East Florida and Georgia. Yes, hurricanes have brushed by those locations but not as a category 3 or higher major storm.
This year has a forecast that calls for a slightly below normal season. This is great news but is a false sense of security. Please do not decide to write this season off because of a long term forecast. Although current conditions point to a mild season, tropical cyclones are unpredictable and can form at any time or any place. It only takes that one huge storm to make landfall to make it a bad season.
Please make all your normal hurricane preparedness plans and hope for another good season.
We will keep you informed of any systems that form as well as alert you to potential development well before it becomes mainstream by checking long term model forecasts. Please remember that model forecasts are not forecasts but simply indicate the potential for development.
When a hurricane landfall is imminent, always listen to your local governments instructions regarding evacuations and local conditions.
Let us all have a safe 2015 tropical season!
Tropical Updates Fresh and Up To Date:
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Web_Forecas…
Atlantic Tropical Outlook……….
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3,
respectively.
The list of names for 2015 is as follows:
Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
————————————————————-
Ana AH-nah Larry LAIR-ree
Bill bill Mindy MIN-dee
Claudette klaw-DET Nicholas NIH-kuh-luss
Danny DAN-ee Odette oh-DEHT
Erika EHR-ih-kuh Peter PEE-tur
Fred frehd Rose rohz
Grace grayss Sam sam
Henri ahn-REE Teresa tuh-REE-suh
Ida EYE-duh Victor VIK-tur
Joaquin wah-KEEN Wanda WAHN-duh
Kate kayt
The Atlantic season got off to an early start this year, with
Tropical Storm Ana forming in May. The next named storm that forms
this season will be Bill.
This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. The issuance
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 AM, and 8 PM EDT. After the
change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM,
7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.
A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.
A standard package of products, consisting of the Tropical Cyclone
Public Advisory, the Forecast/Advisory, the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion, and the Wind Speed Probabilities, is issued every six
hours for all ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a Special
Advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of significant
unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings.
The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel
watches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede the
issuance of a special advisory package. It is also used to provide
hourly information in between public advisories when watches or
warnings are in effect and when the center of the tropical cyclone
can be reliably tracked by coastal radar. Tropical Cyclone Updates,
which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header
WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.
All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are
available on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov. Twitter
notifications on select National Hurricane Center products for the
Atlantic are available via the handle @NHC_Atlantic. Information
about our Atlantic Twitter feed is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php. You can also interact with NHC on
Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC.
$$
Forecaster Brennan
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Outlook.html