Good Wednesday all. Looking at today’s SOI index, it has taken a nose dive. What this means is that if the trend continues, Westerly trade winds will develop in the Pacific that will usher in warmer water to the ENSO regions. This is how an El Nino gets started. Will it happen? Nobody can predict it accurately, not even the models.
It is hard to believe that Hurricane Season 2017 is almost here. Since the last hurricane seasonal projection, lots of things have changed to make almost a complete 360. Now it does not look as likely that El Nino will be strong enough to affect the peak of the 20017 season. In addition, the water temperatures have rapidly started to warm up.
Hurricane season is still almost 3 months away but we Storm Spotters are already looking ahead at the 2017 season. This year there will be some changes to the products that are delivered by the NHC. This year the storm surge maps that have been experimental will go live. This tool will be a lifesaver for sure. It will give you up to the minute information of what areas will be affected by deadly storm surge. Remember that most hurricane deaths are not caused by winds but rather from drowning in waters created by the hurricanes storm surge.
Today marks the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2015. We are currently in an extreme “Hurricane Drought” that has not been seen in many years. In fact some locations such as Tampa have not seen a major hurricane since 1921. In that era, there were silent movies and booze was not even legal! The same goes for parts of North East Florida and Georgia. Yes, hurricanes have brushed by those locations but not as a category 3 or higher major storm.
As we head into the final official end of the summer vacation season, things are quiet in the tropics. There are two areas we are watching but the most vigorous area is in the far eastern Atlantic and even if formation occurs, it will most likely stay at sea and never affect land. This is one Labor Day where the threat for a hurricane will not be a factor.
