7/30/19 Tuesday- Today we are watching 2 areas in the Atlantic. Invest 95L in the Caribbean and an area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Atlantic. Right now Invest 95L has a 10% (low) chance of development. Regardless of development, it will mainly be an increase in rain chances for Florida and possibly also along the East Coast. Wind shear, dust and interaction with land will keep this system from developing in the short term. If any development does occur it will likely be weak and not until it is East of Florida or the Carolina’s.
The second area we are watching is an area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Atlantic. This area is not yet tagged as an Invest so there are no actual spaghetti models for this system yet. Once tagged, it will be called 96L. This area has a little more potential to be an issue then 95L.
Although shoirt term development is not likely, it is possible that some development could occur in about 9 days as the system nears the Islands. Even if it does, development will likely be weak at best. Since we are in a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO) it is likely, but not guaranteed, that the system will recurve before making a landfall threat. A negative NAO usually produces weaker areas of High Pressure and more troughs that move through the US which all aid in turning hurricanes out to sea. This should last through the foreseeable future.
As far as model guidance goes, the GFS is not really showing any development because of land interaction and dry air. The Euro model does not develop it until it reaches the Bahamas. In short, this area will need to be watched and since it is a long way out, we have lots of time.
As I have said many times in the past, be sure you are ready now. Do not wait for a storm to develop before you get prepared. Get your supplies while they are less expensive and readily available.