Late season tropical outlook. I know it is November but the disturbed area of weather in the Caribbean that the models showed us last week has materialized. Although conditions are are not great for development at this time, we will continue to monitor the area for you. Remember that hurricane season lasts till November 30.
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SURFACE LOW
DRIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS…AND A LOW CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT…HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA…PUERTO RICO…AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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Chances for development are low but we will continue to watch the system just in case. Wind shear is quite high in the region.