As we sail towards the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, the forecasters at NOAA have decreased both the chances of a bad season and the total number of expected storms. In May, there was only a 25% chance of a below normal season. As of August 9, that chance has increased to 60%. The chances of an above normal season has dropped to only 10%.
For the entire season, NOAA believes there will be a total of 9 – 13 storms with 4 – 7 of them being hurricanes. Only 0-2 of these storms are expected to be major storms of cat 3 or higher. We have already had 4 storms under our belt and the next storm to form would be named Ernesto.
Several factors were taken into consideration when making this forecast including lower then normal SST temperatures and a 7% chance of an El Nino forming before the season is over. In addition, the wind shear in the Atlantic and Caribbean remains quite high.
We are rapidly approaching that magic date of August 20th when the Tropics usually start to become quite active. If that date comes and goes and we are still seeing the same pattern, there is a chance we can slide through the peak nicely.
I should note that even in quiet seasons, there still could be that one storm that can make your day a bad one. Please do not tune out the forecasts and maintain your readiness just in case. Remember, Andrew hit in a very quiet season.
Please be sure to find out if you live in an evacuation zone and also if you live in a flood zone. Choose your evacuation plans carefully. Over evacuation can actually cause a lot of problems. When millions all try to leave the state at the same time, a very dangerous situation develops as gridlock begins to occur on the roadways. If you live in a sturdy structure and you not in evacuation or flood zone, sometimes it is best to prepare and hunker down in your safe space.
If you live in a mobile home or on the barrier island, staying in place is not an option. You MUST evacuate when told to do so or you risk loosing your life. Storm surges along the barrier islands can completely wash over the island taking everything with it. Remember, barrier islands were geographically placed there in order to protect the mainland from severe storms and hurricanes. If a storm comes, let them do their job.
In short, indications show we are in for a quiet season but stay tuned just in case the unexpected happens.