Hi everybody, tropical storm Isaac is still a 40 MPH storm. The satellite appearance of Isaac has improved over the course of the morning but the center core is still disorganized. The system has resumed a westward motion that should continue the next day or so. After that the system will respond to a break in the subtropical ridge around Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. The intensity forecast of this storm will be very tricky since all the ingredients needed for rapid intensification are there, Isaac could develop quickly if the inner core gets established better. With that said and looking at the forecast track bear in mind that the model spread goes from Southeast Florida all the way to Western Cuba. One model has the system coming in north of Ft Lauderdale and exiting at Tampa. We MUST remain prudent and do NOT let the small status of the storm fool you. Today will be a transition period where the new data entered into the models will give us a better idea of the exact track. That will come into play tomorrow. Tomorrow we should have a more definitive area where the system will make landfall. The current track has shifted a bit to the west as an adjustment to the relocated center. If the system travels close to the West Coast of Florida, storm surge will be a major issue.This will also be the case in the Florida Keys. It has been some time since they have had a direct it so heads up in that area for sure unless there is a major change in the forecast track.
