I have been a storm spotter/tracker since 1997 and I have seen, experienced and tracked some of the worst scenarios known to man. Hurricanes are by far the most destructive storms on the face of the planet. I have had personal experiences with more hurricanes then I care to remember. As destructive as they are, hurricanes are an important part of our eco-system. They are necessary to balance out the heat from the deep tropics and transfer some of that heat to the northern latitudes. Without this heat equalization, our climate could suffer even bigger consequences. Normally, hurricanes want to recurve out to sea, The rotation tries its best but sometimes big bubbles of air (High Pressure) get in the way and totally disrupt this process. That was the case with Florence. The position that Florence was located in the ocean has never in History produced a storm that made landfall. Most storms that affect the Carolinas come in more from a southerly angle through the Bahamas or just East of the Bahamas. The angle of approach for Florence was unprecedented.
AS Florence was spinning in the Atlantic, she was defying many rules and essentially making her own as she went. At one point, it looked like she was going to blow up to a gigantic Cat 5 hurricane. Most of the models showed this happening. They also showed her coming ashore as a major hurricane of a cat 4 or cat 5. The models were quite consistent. This was the forecast that was being put out to the public days before the storm arrived. What we also knew was that Florence was going to slow down to a crawl just as she approached the coast. This part of the forecast had a very high confidence level. With slow movement, relentless rain fall would ultimately occur. We also knew about where Florence would make landfall and Wilmington was on the radar in almost all the models. The hardest part to forecast was the intensity. In many ways, the coast was very lucky. Unexpected wind shear started to affect Florence on her final approach to the coast. This weakened her considerably down to a cat 1 storm. Once she was downgraded, people started to get complacent. Most people seem to classify storm threats by the storm category only. Because of this, I think the NHC needs to find a better way to classify the storms and incorporate the flooding risk into the category structure. Right now, hurricanes are classified only by wind speed.
One of the biggest problems with hurricanes is evacuations. I see people who refuse to evacuate in every storm, every time. This is totally unacceptable. People who are asked to evacuate need to do so and not try to stay behind. In addition, when you evacuate remember to take your pets. In Florence, I have heard about people riding it out on a boat or staying on an island with a ferry as the only way to get in or out. Had this system not gone down to a cat 1, the death toll would of been even greater as these folks almost surely would of perished. Yet others think that the Carolinas never get hurricanes. The truth is, they have a very rich Hurricane history. Florida is not the only place they hit.
While tracking Florence, I made some friends with other folks like myself who try desperately to get the message about the storms out to the public. We do this with no compensation or pay. We do it because we want to keep you safe and relay important information to hopefully make a difference. They do it not to be harsh or demanding but rather because they care about what happens to you, even if they never have met you. We all work together, sometimes unknowingly, to get the word out and I would like to thank each and every one of them. Sometimes we get criticized and I have myself at least once during Florence of being too dramatic. The truth is, Home Town Weather is known for low hype unless there is a good reason for it. Florence was definitely that reason. It was a storm that will go down in history and will be remembered for many years to come. I will continue my mission until each and every person listens to evacuation orders and leaves areas that could put them in harms way.
By: Joe Zelenak Owner of HomeTownWeather.net