Invest 99 was the little engine that couldn’t. From the first day that we started tracking it, it appeared to struggle for survival. That said, a good part of forecasting a tropical systems track is in the computer generated models. These models in the early stages of a system often create a windshield wiper effect where they keep bouncing back and forth between two points. usually, the final result is someplace in between all the runs. A lot of this information is obtained by NOAA planes risking their lives flying into the storms. The information from these planes is invaluable. Even with all the computer models, manual observations, satellites and radar, sometimes systems do what they want and when they want. In the case of 99L, since it was so weak the models had a rough time trying to find a starting point. The two main models the GFS and the Euro were battling it out to see who could win. In almost every run, our own GFS seems to have had the solution all along but it was discounted because nobody thought it made any sense. Most of the other models were saying we were going to get slammed. Forecasters are often put in a position of either alerting the public of a potential threat or saying everything is going to be fine. When the vast majority of models say everything is not going to be fine, you have to listen to the majority.
For me, I felt a sense of relief whenever I ran the GFS model and I loaded it on Face book stating that it is not finding the storm. Although tempting, we could not say there will be no threat when every outlet on the planet is saying otherwise. Instead I just hinted that by posting the GFS on a regular basis. In most situations, the Euro will win, especially with stronger storms. In a situation with a weaker system, I will have a lot more faith in what our GFS (American Model) is trying to say.
Many will say the media was crying wolf but that is far from the truth. Given the conditions in the area around Florida, if this system was a bit farther north away from the Islands, I honestly believe we would of been in a dire situation. by the grace of God and a little bit of luck, we may of had dodged another bullet. Remember, the remnants are still out there and it is not over until it is over.
http://www.tropicalatlanticweather.com/