Hi everybody and welcome! It looks like the winter of 2002-2003 is going to be a really harsh one with a line up of storms marching across the U.S. from the West Coast. Last weeks storm followed the jet stream through the central part of the country and picked up lots of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and turned into a major nor’easter. As I write this column, there are at least two more threats to the Northeast over the next 10 days. A lot of this can be blamed on El Nino. Speaking of El Nino, Prof. William Grey released his extended forecast for the 2003 hurricane season. The 2003 hurricane season will run from June 1st till November 30th of 2003. he predicts we will have 12 named storms, 8 of them will be hurricanes. There will be 65 named storm days, 35 of them will be hurricane days. He predicts there will be 3 intense hurricanes and 8 intense hurricane days. The probability for at least one major cat. 3,4 or 5 hurricane making landfall in each of th following areas are as follows:
1. Entire U.S. coastline is 68%. The average for the last century is 52%.
2. U. S. East Coast including the peninsula of Florida is 48%. The average for the last century is 31%.
3. gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle west to Brownsville Texas is 38%. The average for the last century is 30%.
4. There is an above average risk for a major hurricane to make landfall in the Caribbean.
As you can see the 2003 season looks to be very active in part due to the influx of El Nino. These forecasts will be updated next year as the season moves closer. I will update this information as it becomes available.
Now, on to the Time Capsule.
Here are some past National Weather Events.