Hi everybody and welcome! In past columns I have talked a lot about El Nino and the various effects it has on our weather. One of the impacts it can have is to help steer hurricanes away from our coast. Another advantage is that El Nino upper air winds can help tear apart the upper structure of hurricanes thus inhibiting their growth. Unfortunately, the El Nino we have been experiencing is slowly dying off and we may be going into this storm season in a “neutral” situation with no El Nino or La Nino to influence the storms. This could lead to a more severe hurricane season then we have experienced in the past couple of years.
Dr. William Grey has released the new projections for the 2003 hurricane season. He is predicting as above average probability for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin and also for U.S. hurricane landfalls. The number of named storms this year will be 12. The number of named storm days is projected to be 65. This compares to an average of 49.1. The number of hurricanes is expected to be 8. The average is 5.9. The number of intense hurricanes is expected to be 3. The net tropical cyclone activity is expected to be 140%. This compares with the average of 100%.
The probability for at least one major hurricane to hit the entire U.S. coastline is 68%. The average for last century is 52%. The probability for a major storm to hit the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula is 48%. The average for the last century was 31%. The probability of a major hit on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville Texas is 38% The average for last century is 30%. He also expects above average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.
This hurricane forecast will be updated in another couple on months. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st – November 30th.
Now, on to the Time Capsule…
April l8, l945 -- Volusia County -- A tornado was accompanied by hail as large as guinea eggs.
April 18, l978 -- Volusia Co., Ormond Beach -- A tornado rolled a large mobile home 200 ft and destroyed it. Several homes had roof damage.
April 18, 1996 -- Okaloosa Co., Mary Esther -- Eleven military personnel were working on an aircraft when lightning struck either the aircraft or near the aircraft. One of the airmen was killed and ten others were injured. The personnel had been ordered inside due to thunderstorms around the area earlier in the morning. The airmen were allowed back on the field at 8:29 am and lightning hit at 8:38 am. It was likely the strike that hit the airmen was the first strike out of a developing thunderstorm.
April l9, l90l -- Dade Co., N. Miami -- Tornado killed a prominent vegetable farmer as his new home was blown apart.
April 19, l969 -- Orlando, Lake Ivanhoe -- Wind capsized a boat, one man drowned, five others swam to safety.
April 19, l978 -- Marion Co., Silver Springs Shores. Lightning killed a construction worker standing on a metal ladder.
April 19, l988 -- Gadsden, Madison, Hamilton Cos. -- A tornado moved through Madison destroying 17 homes and damaging 30 homes, in addition several commercial buildings, a church, and three buildings at North Florida Junior College were destroyed. Two people were killed in a mobile home and two were killed in a farmhouse - l8 injuries, six requiring hospitalization. About 90,000 chicks were killed. Other tornadoes hit Bellville in Hamilton Co., and severe thunderstorm winds were reported in Quincy. Later in the morning severe thunderstorm winds unroofed a house and blew a large tree on a car near Lake Apopka in Orange Co. and a tornado near Mascotte in Lake Co. heavily damage seven mobile homes and a frame house.
April 20, l989 -- St. Lucie Co., Port St. Lucie -- Lightning injured two golfers while retrieving golf balls from a lake.
April 20, l992 -- Lake Co., -- Thunderstorm winds blew down trees along highway. A falling tree crashed into a van and killed a 63-year old man.
April 21, l99l -- Clay Co., Lowry Lake -- A fisherman in a l6 ft aluminum boat was washed overboard and drowned when strong thunderstorm winds and high waves swamped the boat.
April 22, l97l -- daytime -- Walton Co., NW Glendale --Golf ball size hail destroyed l, 000 acres of wheat.
April 22, 1995 -- Okaloosa Co., Fort Walton Beach -- A 17-year-old Ft. Walton Beach male died in rough surf while swimming off of Okaloosa Island. Hazardous surf condition flags were posted over the lifeguard stands along the protected beach areas, but a couple of local teens ventured into the rough surf.
April 23, l945 -- Escambia Co., Pensacola -- Tornado destroyed six homes, damaged l0 others. One home was thrown 300 feet onto another. Eight injuries.
April 23, l978 -- Dade Co., Miami -- Thunderstorm wind gusts of 5l mph damaged windows. Flying glass injured ten people. Several funnel clouds were reported in the area.
April 23, l983 -- morning to afternoon -- Severe weather outbreak across north central Florida. Eleven tornadoes and l2 other severe thunderstorms struck from the big bend area to Jacksonville and Orlando, injuring nine and causing considerable property damage. A tornado destroyed a 2-story beach house at Alligator Point in Franklin Co., and fifty mobile homes were damaged at Shell Point in Wakulla Co. Two people were injured when thunderstorm winds overturned a trailer at Mayo in Lafayette Co. A tornado struck Bell in Gilchrist Co., destroying several mobile homes and injuring four. A tornado destroyed a brick home at Fort White in Columbia Co. Other tornadoes were reported in Bradford, Union, Duval, Clay, Marion, Lake, Volusia, and Orange Counties during the early afternoon.
April 24-25, l979 -- Broward, Dade Co. -- Heavy rains caused flooding of roads, streets, and highways. Miami International had a record 24 hour rainfall l6.2l". The weight of the water caused roofs to collapse, flooding damaged floors and carpets. A woman drove into a canal and drowned, a man lost control of his car, struck a utility pole and died.
April 25, l99l -- Central Florida -- Widespread Severe weather outbreak. Many reports of tornadoes and severe thunderstorm winds during the afternoon with widespread minor property damage and only two minor injuries. Weak tornadoes struck Largo and Indian Shores in Pinellas Co. Lakeland and Mulberry in Polk Co., and near McDill AFB and Temple Terrace in Hillsborough Co. Severe Thunderstorm Winds struck Clearwater, St. Petersburg Beach, Tampa, Sarasota, Venice, Port Charlotte, Wauchula, Arcadia, Avon Park, Lake Wales, Sebastian and Miami. Hail was also reported in Sarasota, Polk, and Pinellas Cos. Lightning struck a man working under a truck south of Miami.
Here are some National past weather events…
April 18, 1880 -- More
than two dozen tornadoes were reported from Kansas and Arkansas to Wisconsin
and Michigan. More than 100 persons were killed, including 65 persons at
Marshfield Missouri.
April 18, 1957 -- A dust devil near Dracut
Massachusettes lifted a small child three feet into the air, and rolled two
other children on the ground. Fortunately none of the three were hurt. The dust
devil was accompanied by a loud whistling sound as it moved westward.
April 19, 1775 -- The first engagement of the
Revolutionary War took place under clear crisp weather at Lexington-Concord.
April 19, 1976 -- The northeastern U.S. was in the midst
of an early season heat wave, and the Boston Marathon took place in 90 degree
heat. At Providence RI the mercury hit 98 degrees.
April 20, 1901 -- A spring storm produced unusally heavy
snow in northeast Ohio. Warren received 35.5 inches in thirty-six hours, and 28
inches fell at Green Hill. Akron Ohio established April records of 15.6 inches
in 24 hours, and 26.6 inches for the month. Pittsburgh Pennsylvania established
April records of 12.7 inches in 24 hours, and 13.5 inches for the month.
April 23, 1885 -- The city of Denver Colorado was in the
midst of a storm which produced 23 inches of snow in 24 hours, and at Idaho
Springs Colorado produced 32 inches of snow.
April 24, 1899 -- Two women and one son lived to tell
the story of being picked up by a tornado and carried more than a fourth of a
mile, flying far above the church steeples, before being gently set down again.
The young boy and one of the ladies said they had the pleasure of flying
alongside a horse. The horse "kicked and struggled" as it flew high
above, and was set down unharmed about a mile away. (The Weather Channel)
That’s all for this weeks Time Capsule. I hope you enjoyed it. I love to hear from you! Please e-mail me your ideas and suggestions to JOESDISCOWEATHER@AOL.COM. As always, for the latest in severe weather updates and now winter weather updates from your hometown go to JOESDISCOWEATHERCENTRAL.COM! You can also join me for a free cup of coffee and a free copy of The Hometown News at the Stuart K Mart garden center every Saturday morning!