It is hard to believe that Hurricane Season 2017 is almost here. Since the last hurricane seasonal projection, lots of things have changed to make almost a complete 360. Now it does not look as likely that El Nino will be strong enough to affect the peak of the 20017 season. In addition, the water temperatures have rapidly started to warm up.
Invest 99 was the little engine that couldn’t. From the first day that we started tracking it, it appeared to struggle for survival. That said, a good part of forecasting a tropical systems track is in the computer generated models. These models in the early stages of a system often create a windshield wiper effect where they keep bouncing back and forth between two points. usually, the final result is someplace in between all the runs. A lot of this information is obtained by NOAA planes risking their lives flying into the storms. The information from these planes is invaluable. Even with all the computer models, manual observations, satellites and radar, sometimes systems do what they want and when they want. In the case of 99L, since it was so weak the models had a rough time trying to find a starting point. The two main models the GFS and the Euro were battling it out to see who could win. In almost every run, our own GFS seems to have had the solution all along but it was discounted because nobody thought it made any sense. Most of the other models were saying we were going to get slammed. Forecasters are often put in a position of either alerting the public of a potential threat or saying everything is going to be fine. When the vast majority of models say everything is not going to be fine, you have to listen to the majority.
Good morning Treasure Coast. WE have a lot going on so let’s get to it. Of course our main concern is what is happening in the tropics. A hurricane hunter is going out today to investigate the system that I expect will soon be Colin. The model trends have been more towards North Florida but these models will likely change when the system develops. Regardless of the track, the system will be large and will affect a large area with rain and potential severe weather.
Good evening everybody. Right now the tropics are quiet but both the Euro and the GFS are insisting of a tropical entity in the Gulf in the October 20 – 25 time period. this is the leates GFS model run which confirms this. Although a long way out, we will be watching this closely.
