A significant snowfall event is possible across much of Southern New England as a low pressure area tracks between Nantucket and the 40N/70W location. In addition, another snow event is possible over the weekend.
Overall, there is significant confidence that a winter storm will impact the souther New England area. The expected impact will be late Tuesday night through Wednesday.
There is some uncertainty with snowfall totals as the models tend to shift back and forth in regard to the air temperatures. This can make a significant difference either way in the snow totals.
Overall, the models are in good agreement that a low pressure area will form along the Mid Atlantic Coast and travel just south of Cape Cod by late in the day Wednesday.
Comparing the models, it appears the NAM are slightly warmer then the GFS which could produce more mixing and a lower snowfall total. The colder GFS solution would produce more snowfall in the affected regions. The heaviest snow will be from late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
There is still some uncertainty how far north the warm area will reach. Current thinking is that the snow will remain all snow north of Plymouth and a mix south of that line. As the system moves offshore, it will bring cold air back into the system and the mix will turn back to all snow.
Snowfall rates could be near one to two inches per hour during the Wednesday morning commute. The snow will be of the heavier wet varity and not the dry fluffy stuff of past storms. In general, expect 9-12 inches with some isolated areas seeing up to 14 inches.
We have several resources to keep you informed.
New England Forecast and Radar
http://www.massachusettsradar.com/
New York/New Jersey Forecast and Radar
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/New_York_and_Vicinity_Forecast.html
North East Hydromet Classification Dual Pol Radar
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/New_York_Dual_Pol_Radar.html
You can see in the radar some precipitation starting to move in to the region. The radar Legend: IC=Ice/mix, DS+dry snow, WS+wet snow, RA+rain, HR=heavy rain.
