The official hurricane season forecast is out from the Colorado State University. They are calling for an average season with 12 named storms. The new forecast is based on several factors including the presence of El Nino and ocean SST temperatures.
There has been a strong presence of El Nino during the past several months. El Nino is now on a slow downward trend as we head for a potential La Nina, the opposite of El Nino. It will likely dissipate before the peak 2016 hurricane season. This trend will likely happen by August.
Across the Atlantic, the SST temperatures are in an unusual state. The temperatures in the North Atlantic are actually quite cold. The thinking is that some of this colder ocean water may enter parts of the hurricane breeding grounds and help prevent long trackers from getting strong as they move across the Atlantic. It is still not known if this scenario will develop so it must be taken with a grain of salt at this hour. More will be known as we get closer to June.
In short, the total number of named storms should be 12 (seasonal Average is 13) with 5 of them becoming hurricanes. 2 will be major hurricanes with winds of 130 MPH or higher.
There will be 50 named storm days (days with named tropical system activity) and 20 hurricane days (average is 21).
The probabilities for a major hurricane landfall are as follows: Entire United States Coastline will be 50%. The chance of a landfall along the US East Coast including Florida is 30%. The chance of a land falling hurricane along the Gulf Coast is 29%. (Average is 30%)
It is important to note that these numbers are just a guide for what could happen in 2016. The next update will come out on June 1, 2016 on the first day of hurricane season.
For the latest Tropical Outlooks visit us at:
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Web_Forecasts.html