Good afternoon everybody! The early predictions for the 2016 Hurricane Season are out but you should probably take them with a grain of salt this year. The years is projected to be about normal with 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes including 4 major hurricanes. These numbers could be raised or lowered when the actual season begins on June 1.
The reason? An area of cold water is slowly migrating towards the main hurricane breeding ground. If the ocean currents pick up this colder water, the season will fall below normal as one of the major ingredients for hurricane production will be stopped.
It is unknown if this is due to a slow down of the ocean currents or other reasons. It is important to remember that extended forecasts are mostly for information purposes and that predictions this far out are not written in stone. They can provide a valuable guide, however, as to what to potentially expect. The last several years have been extremely quiet with below average seasons. This year is predicted to be slightly more active but not above normal.
As with any hurricane season, preparing is the key. Regardless of predictions, you should always be ready every single season. Since it has been 10 years without a hurricane many folks are very complacent until a storm threatens. This causes major headaches for everybody as supplies become limited and tempers flare. Get your stuff early before there is a threat. It will make life easier for both you and your neighbors.
It is Never too early to make a hurricane plan. Unlike tornados, hurricanes are nice enough to give us a week or more of notice before it hits. I know how frustrating it is when the main computer models keep moving a cone back and forth as the days progress. Sometimes the shifts are small and quite insignificant while other shifts can make the difference between a direct hit or an offshore brushing. The 2015 season had some major challenges to overcome as the systems that were tracked moved back and forth like snakes. Forecasting these monsters is no easy task and they sometimes just take on a mind of their own and do whatever they please. Storms do not always play by the rules. The only rule that is written in concrete is that you should be ready! Evacuate if you are told to do so! I know it is an extreme in convenience but following the instructions of your local officials could save you from injury or worse.
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