Good Sunday evening everybody. There is an old saying that what goes up must come down. That is going to be the case with the present El Nino that is affecting our weather this winter. The El Nino protected us well this past hurricane season by creating strong upper level winds that protected us from hurricanes.
As you know, El Nino is a warming of the waters of the tropical Pacific. This warming then in turn affects weather patterns throughout the world. It normally helps to protect us from hurricanes by increasing the wind shear in the tropical Atlantic.
Unfortunately, El Nino will not last forever and it has reached its peak. What this means is that the current weather pattern will begin to change by the time the upcoming hurricane season begins on June 1, 2016.
Looking back at previous years following an El Nino has mixed reviews. For example, in 1982 we had a strong El Nino and there were only 4 named storms the year after. In 1998 on the other hand, we had 14 named storms after the strong 1997 El Nino. It is the 1997 event that this current El Nino is being compared to.
In short, when the present El Nino finally weakens, there is no guarantee that it will automatically lead to a bad season. The chances of seeing a hurricane approach our shores will definitely increase, however. Not only are we looking at a changing weather pattern but we are also looking at the very long term hurricane drought we have been experiencing. With each passing year that we do not see a storm, we are one more year overdue. This lucky streak will not last forever and eventually the weather pattern will change.
So what will 2016 bring? Nobody knows for sure but the weakening state of the present El Nino will be something to watch with a careful eye. In addition, Florida is not the only place that needs to watch the state of the tropics. Many folks that live in the north east often think they are immune from a major hurricane. With each passing year that thinking is getting to be more and more from the truth. Anybody that lives along the Gulf or Atlantic Coast is vulnerable. In addition, many folks who live inland think that they are immune as well. It is a known fact that hurricanes under certain conditions can bring dangerous weather well inland.
While we have several months until the 2016 hurricane season begins, it is important to have a plan and be educated now. Early preperation and knowledge could one day save your life.