Hi everybody. since I am on vacation I have had a lot of opportunity to track this storm practically every hour. The storm right now is stationary but it is not getting stronger at the moment. There are Tropical storm warnings up from Fernindino Beach north to the Savanagh River in Georgia. The trough that was supposed to pick up the storm appears to be too weak to grab it. Some of the computer models are actually showing the storm moving back to the SW and across Florida into the Gulf. That could explain why at 8:00 AM the probability of Ft Pierce getting Tropical storm conditions was 5% and at 11:00 am the probability jumped up to 14%. Its very interesting to see what the NHC does not tell you. The next update is at 2:00 pm so I really won't know much more till then. If the probability increases again then we know that this scenerio is more likely to happen. we are not totally out of the woods so stay posted!! Here is the OFFICIAL 11:00 am update and probability table. Always refer to the probability numbers in column "E" as they represent the total probability for the 72 hour time period. WTNT35 KNHC 021439 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 02 2002 ...EDOUARD MOVING LITTLE WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO SAVANNAH RIVER GEORGIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FROM FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. EDOUARD HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY THIS MORNING...WITH AN OVERALL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH AT 3 MPH. A SLOW GENERALLY NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...30.5 N... 79.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN WTNT75 KNHC 021440 SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 02 2002 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT THU SEP 5 2002 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.2N 79.4W 99 X X X 99 WILMINGTON NC X 3 3 4 10 31.3N 79.6W 99 X X X 99 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 1 4 5 31.3N 80.0W 99 X X X 99 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 2 2 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 2 2 NORFOLK VA X X X 2 2 MUHA 230N 824W X X X 3 3 KEY WEST FL X X 1 5 6 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 3 6 10 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 4 4 FT MYERS FL X 1 5 5 11 MYGF 266N 787W X 2 2 5 9 VENICE FL X 1 5 6 12 MARATHON FL X X 2 4 6 TAMPA FL X 3 6 5 14 MIAMI FL X 1 3 5 9 CEDAR KEY FL X 3 7 5 15 W PALM BEACH FL X 3 4 5 12 ST MARKS FL X 1 5 7 13 FT PIERCE FL 1 5 5 3 14 APALACHICOLA FL X X 3 7 10 COCOA BEACH FL 2 8 4 3 17 PANAMA CITY FL X X 2 7 9 DAYTONA BEACH FL 4 9 4 2 19 PENSACOLA FL X X X 5 5 JACKSONVILLE FL 7 8 3 3 21 MOBILE AL X X X 3 3 SAVANNAH GA 18 3 2 1 24 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2 CHARLESTON SC 16 4 1 2 23 GULF 29N 85W X X 2 7 9 MYRTLE BEACH SC 4 6 3 3 16 GULF 29N 87W X X X 5 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN